Here are some other reasons why I am optimistic:
- The country is now run by Trichet, Merkel and the European Commission. They more-or-less know what they are doing, unlike the ruling class in Ireland.
- Exports are booming and for the first time in years the country has a balance of payments surplus. The country is selling more stuff than it is buying. We haven’t done that for years. It is a sign that we are finally living within our means.
- Deflation is making the cost of living here more realistic, which in turn can make salaries and and other costs more realistic. That will restore our “competitiveness”. We will recover more quickly than people think.
- We are eventually going to default on a lot of the debt. There is no way we can pay it. When things settle down in the eurozone, Trichet or his successor will give us the green light to start reneging on all the debt, and then this “unfortunate little episode” will all be forgotten.
- The boom was a financial disaster but it generated lots of real wealth – roads, bridges, infrastructure, buildings, hundreds of thousands of houses and apartments. Once we default on the debt, the financial problem will be ameliorated but the real wealth will still remain, and people will be able to buy things at realistic prices.
- Lots of young people are emigrating. They will be able to lead decent lives abroad, in nicer climates. They are educated and dynamic and these young Irish people will thrive wherever they go. Then, when things get a bit better here (after we default on the debt) they can come back if they wish. This is better than them staying here, and working their entire lives as debt-slaves to pay off the borrowings of Fitzpatrick, Fingleton and all the other arseholes.
- For the few young people who manage to stay in Ireland, houses and everything else will become an awful lot cheaper. Their lives will be much more pleasant than was previously the case.
- There will be a general election in the New Year, and Fianna Fail will be decimated. This will be of symbolic importance – marking a break with the past. But it will only be of symbolic significance. There will be a new government, but that won’t make any difference in reality, since from now on, Irish politicians will just have to do what they are told to do from Europe.
- By the time this is over, there will no longer be any Irish-owned banks – they will all be given or sold to foreign banks. Given that the Irish banks destroyed the country, this is appropriate. It also means any debt-risk in future cannot be transferred by the government to the Irish people. It will prevent booms from happening in Ireland. New Zealand has no domestically owned banks, and it works fine.
- The cosseted, cliquish, ageing, smug, over-paid professional class in Ireland will be forced to reform. They will be given an enormous kick up the arse by the foreigners who now control the country. They won’t know what has hit them.
- What has happened with the IMF\EU bailout is a disaster for the ruling, insider class in Ireland. It is they who are now doing most of the screeching and the wailing. For most of the rest of the country, the disaster has already happened, and the future if anything is beginning to look a bit brighter.
