A reader writes: “All the anti-Romney, pro-Obama talk is becoming dull. Living as I do outside the US it has been absolutely impossible for me to find a single pro-Romney supporter. I was hoping that by coming to www.brianbarrington.com I could get a fresh perspective. Something that would go against the grain. But alas no.”
BB SAYS: Sorry, but on this question I find it impossible to go against the grain just for the sake of it – the US Republicans are currently a brain-dead party and when they are in power they cause immense damage, both to Americans and to the world. For me to take up a contrarian position on this would be irresponsible.
So I am going to make a hopeful prediction: Obama will win the US presidential election tomorrow, with at least 290 electoral college votes, and probably 303 electoral college votes. (270 electoral college votes are needed to win).
As far as I can work out, Romney has made himself somewhat competitive in the Presidential election by promising that if elected he will govern as a sensible Massachusetts liberal, just as he did when governor. Effectively, Romney has thrown the right-wing nutters in his party under a bus. However, if Romney is elected the right-wing nutters will all come crawling out from their lairs for one last hurrah, and they could have a seriously negative impact.
But even if Romney-Ryan scratch out an unlikely victory tomorrow the Republicans are a political party in deep trouble. Basically, there are too many young people, women, blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, homosexuals and well-educated socially liberal urban professionals (and not enough old white rural Christian men) for the Republicans to win without great difficulty. And it’s only going to get worse for Republicans, who are reacting with panic and embracing irrationality. “If we lose this election there is only one explanation - demographics,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn’t conservative enough I’m going to go nuts,” said Graham. “We’re not losing 95 percent of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we’re not being hard-ass enough.”’
In every election, since 1992, Democrats have either won the White House or fallen a single state short of the presidency. Even before the Presidential election begins Democrats already have 237 electoral college votes in the bag in states that would never vote for the Republican Party in its current form (the Northeast, the West Coast and much of the Great Lakes area). This means Democrats only have to pick up another 33 votes in swing states to win. In contrast Republicans start out with only 191 electoral college votes in the bag (the Deep South and Fly-Over America) – meaning they have to pick up 80 votes in swing states to win. So the Republicans start out with a major handicap.
If Obama does lose we will have to be patient and wait another few years to watch the Republicans get their well-deserved comeuppance. But if Obama does win we should avoid the temptation to gloat too much and we would be wise to keep in mind an important fact: the white male working class populace in the US is in crisis – in the last 30 years they have seen their status collapse, their job-security disappear, their incomes stagnate, their position in society eroded. Admittedly, Republican policies since Reagan have played a large part in bringing about this situation, but that is not the point: this damaged class is mostly made up of decent people and they need decent jobs and they also deserve a respected place in their society. This is something that should be remembered over the coming week regardless of what happens in the elections.
