The Global Balance of Power in the Twenty First Century

A READER WRITES: Samuel Huntington had his “clash of civilisations”, Francis Fukayama had his “end of history”. Brian Barrington, please turn your own analytical skills to geopolitics and share with us your insights.

BB SAYS: Interesting question. What predictions can be made about the “Great Game” for international influence in the 21st century? Well, we are moving from a unipolar world into a multi-polar world. Yes. It’s true. Remember where you heard it first readers. Because I’m damn sure that wherever you heard it first, it sure as hell wasn’t here.

In the 21st century the three major global centres of power will be the US, China and Europe. The US is still the most powerful place in the world. But China is catching up. That’s my view anyway. So remember where you read this first too: China is doing all sorts of great stuff over there. It’s very much the global dark horse. When are people going to start noticing the rise of China? Isn’t it about time that the media woke up and started noticing this new geopolitical phenomenon? Why should it be left to bloggers like me to point it out?

And what about Europe? Collectively, its economy is currently a bit bigger than that of the US or China, but it is more politically fragmented. The cosseted citizens of Europe don’t want more union – they’d prefer to let the future be largely decided by the US and China, while they wallow in whatever it is that Europeans like to wallow in. But Europe has what I like to call soft power. Europe’s system is admired, and it exercises influence as a result of that – via the EU. So Europe will have some power, but less than the US or China. Europe will be an economic giant, a political dwarf, and a military worm.

The major second tier powers will be Japan, Russia and above all India. These regions and others will be able to play the three powerful centres off each other. The US, China and Europe will compete ferociously for access to resources and markets, as well as for influence, in these other regions.

Latin America will integrate – led by Brazil. It will try to imitate EU integration, in a bid to liberate itself from US dominance. Similar integration will be attempted in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. These regions will start to master the art of playing the big powers off each other for their own advantage. They will develop rapidly.

And the troublesome Middle East? Almost uniquely among geopolitical analysts, I am reasonably sanguine about the prospects for the Middle East. Underneath the surface these societies are modernising. Life-expectancies have been increasing, as have literacy and incomes. Islamic extremism is a sign of weakness and vulnerability rather than strength – the fanatics realise how threatened they are by modernity. Despite media appearances, the Muslim world is modernising, and will continue to modernise, on its own terms, and not be dictated to by the West, or by anyone else. But like developing countries elsewhere, Middle Eastern countries will try to model themselves on China, and ape its method of development.

The boundary between the “developed” world and the “developing” world will become ever more blurred. The United Nations will become ever less important, as will the G7. The G20 will be where all the major global decisions are made.

International wars will become less and less common, because it is counter-productive for countries to start them – it is too costly, and too dangerous. If the country being invaded has any WMDs, it is simply too risky to invade it. And all but the most screwed up countries can have WMDs these days. Even a basket-case like North Korea has nuclear weapons, and therefore cannot be attacked. So the number of countries in the world that can safely be attacked is declining all the time, and hence so are the number of international wars.

So, I am optimistic about the twenty first century. The biggest risk is an international trade war, leading to catastrophic economic collapse, followed by the disintegration of civilisation, combined with climate change disasters, and the unleashing of weapons of mass destruction. But apart from that possibility, I am enormously optimistic.

I intend to come back here in 2099 and see how well I’ve done with my predictions.